FT Market Insight: Market challenge for the Fed is just beginning
Central bank is caught between strong economic fundamentals and market fragility. By Lena Komileva, 07/01/2019
First published on www.ft.com.
Connecting the Dots
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Financial Times Insight: Why volatility is here to stay
The “goldilocks” trade of the past year — the bet that a period of unnatural calm in financial conditions would last indefinitely — has broken down. By Lena Komileva
First published on www.ft.com
Bloomberg Prophets: Stocks and Bonds Are Sending the Correct Signals
Although the economy is not about to fall into recession, it is close to the peak for the current growth cycle. By Lena Komileva
First published on www.bloomberg.com
Bloomberg TV: Komileva - Why I'm Optimistic About Europe
Lena Komileva, managing director at G+ Economics, discusses the ECB's bond-purchase plan with Bloomberg's Anna Edwards and Mark Barton on "Countdown" (Source: Bloomberg)
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Bloomberg TV: Financial Stability - Central Banks' 3rd Mandate
Lena Komileva discusses the need for a focus on financial stability as a third mandate for central banks. She speaks with Tom Keene and Francine Lacqua on "Bloomberg Surveillance" (Source: Bloomberg)
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Bloomberg TV: Markets Are Underpricing Risk of a Rate Hike - Komileva
Ex-Goldman's Cohn, now President Trump's economic adviser says it would be wrong to think markets are ready for higher Fed rates. G Plus Economics Chief Economist and Managing Director Lena Komileva agrees. She speaks to Bloomberg's Anna Edwards on "Countdown." Source: Bloomberg
Greece: Without ECB Support, 'Grexit' Is Inevitable
G Plus Economics Chief Economist and Managing Director Lena Komileva discusses the Greek debt crisis with Bloomberg's Anna Edward on "Countdown". (Source: Bloomberg)
What Will Unemployment Data Tell About U.S. Economy?
Lena Komileva, managing director and chief economist at G+ Economics, talks with Guy Johnson about the U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls report and examines the overall strength of the U.S. economy. She speaks on “The Pulse”. (Source: Bloomberg)
Bloomberg TV: The structural flipside of Christine Lagarde’s “new normal”
Tom Keene and Jonathan Ferro on "Bloomberg Surveillance": Lena Komileva, managing director at G+ Economics, discusses global worries about financial instability and how markets are driving central bank moves. (Source: Bloomberg)
The Big Read
Selected articles by Lena Komileva
Financial Times Market Insight: Market challenge for the Fed is just beginning, Financial Times, 7 January, 2019
Bloomberg Prophets: The Rules of the Game Are Changing for Investors, Bloomberg, 16 February, 2018
Financial Times Insight: Why volatility is here to stay, Financial Times, 12 February, 2018
Bloomberg Opinion | Prophets: The Fed Is Losing Control of the Financial Markets, Bloomberg, 16 January, 2018
Bloomberg Opinion | Prophets: Stocks and Bonds Are Sending the Correct Signals, Bloomberg, 15 December, 2017
Financial Times Insight: High-stakes game of financial risk for policymakers - Cracks appearing as fears grow central bank tightening could provoke market instability, Financial Times, 28 November, 2017 (- Sintra follow up)
FT Opinion: You are too complacent, central banks warn markets,
Financial Times, 31 July, 2017 (Sintra)
Currency fireworks, global economic imbalances and the G20, Bloomberg View, 18 February, 2013
On the need for Davos attendees to avoid a false sense of security, Bloomberg View, 23 January, 2013
How long can equities defy economic malaise? Financial Times, September, 2012
How Low Will Bond Yields Go? Financial Times, June 2012
Libor volatility is price of disrupted credit, Financial Times, 23 August, 2010
Not a liquidity crisis, but a solvency one, Financial Times, 3 June, 2010
How to fix the liquidity leak, Financial Times, 2 February 2009
Can the capital markets rally reinvigorate the real economy? Financial Times, September 2009
How G20 can unfreeze credit and cut bailout costs, The Great Debate, Thomson Reuters, April 2009
Crash and carry, Lena Komileva predicts a sharp reversal of the global carry trade, FX Week, 17 March 2008
Demand better!
Whatever the macro-risk financial climate, evolving international economic trends and financial interconnections can create actionable opportunities and real risk management demands. The art of successful investing is predicting the direction of macro risk travel >>>
g+economics in the news
MarketWatch: How far can stocks rally on dovish Fed? It depends on the data (31/01/19)
FT Market Forces: A weaker dollar favours risk appetite (31/01/19)
Bloomberg TV: Komileva, Todd on the Future of Brexit (16/01/19)
FT Market Forces: Investors in thrall of the market tug of war (07/01/19)
FT Market Insight: Market challenge for the Fed is just beginning (07/01/2019)
Bloomberg Radio: Komileva says Tensions Between US and China Run Deep (03/12/2018)
FT: G20 caution leaves US stocks treading water (30/11/2018)
FT Market Forces: Ending November with markets stuck on hold (30/11/18)
MarketWatch: As Lighthizer predicts ‘success’ in Trump-Xi dinner, here’s what such an outcome might look like (30/11/2018)
FT: Wall St debates two words in Powell speech: 'just below' (28/11/2018)
EFE: La incertidumbre del Brexit pone en jaque a la economía británica (25/11/2018)
Bloomberg News: Pound Plunge Was Mere Prelude to What May Happen With No Deal (16/11/2018)
MarketWatch: Here's how Brexit turmoil could become a problem for US and global markets (16/11/2018)
FT: A Congress divided: Analysts explain what it means for Wall Street (07/11/2018)
FT: Dollar drops as midterm results dim stimulus hopes (07/11/2018)
MarketWatch: As election clouds clear, get ready for the rush back into US stocks (07/11/2018)
CNBC: Tax cuts have been controversial, but voters didn't seem to care about them (07/11/2018)
FT Market Forces: Gridlock - no escape from trade tension (06/11/18)
Bloomberg Radio: Bloomberg Daybreak with Karen Moskow and Nathan Hager (23/10/18)
Bloomberg TV: Fed Should Be Proceeding Towards Normalization Says G Plus' Komileva (04/07/18)
Reuters: Yields drop as US-China trade tension mounts (19/06/18)
Bloomberg TV: UK Parliament Set for Vote to Decide Brexit End Game (18/06/18)
Bloomberg: Taper Without the Tantrum as Draghi Pulls Off Virtuoso Performance (14/06/18)
FT: Euro under pressure as ECB delivers ‘dovish taper’ (14/06/18)
Bloomberg TV: Komileva says happy to let US economy run hot. Lena Komileva, chief economist at G Plus Economics, discusses Federal Reserve policy and inflation. She speaks on "Bloomberg Surveillance." (28/05/18)
FT: Dollar near 2018 highs ahead of Fed meeting (01/05/18)
Reuters: After Carney surprise, chance of May BoE rate hike down but not out (25/04/18)
Barron’s “Up and Down Wall Street”: Does the Flattening Yield Curve Signal a Recession? (21/04/18)
FT: Fed’s rate signals belie benign financial conditions (22/03/18)
FT: US stocks gain traction on signs of North Korea progress (06/03/18)
Bloomberg Prophets: The Rules of the Game Are Changing for Investors (16/02/18)
Financial Times Insight: Why volatility is here to stay (12/02/18)
FT: European stocks on track for worst week in two years (09/02/18)
FT: US stocks may find support as S&P 500 tests key level (09/02/18)
FT: S&P 500 in correction territory as sell-off continues (08/02/18)
MarketWatch: Stock-market melt-up takes a timeout as bond yields rise (03/02/18)
Business Insider: Wall Street is watching a key recession indicator that keeps flashing (19/01/18)
Bloomberg Opinion | Prophets: The Fed Is Losing Control of the Financial Markets (16/01/2018)
Asset TV: Masterclass Global Outlook - 2018
FT: Wall Street struggles to extend new year rally (08/01/18)
Bloomberg TV: What are the biggest risks facing markets in 2018? (01/01/18)
Bloomberg Best - Radio: The outlook for 2018 (28/12/17)
Bloomberg TV: Komileva Says Markets in State of “Rational Exuberance” (28/12/17)
Bloomberg Opinion | Prophets: Stocks and Bonds Are Sending the Correct Signals (15/12/17)
WSJ: As Fed Tightens, Europe Hangs Loose (14/12/17)
FT: Yellen kept markets calm but 2018 may be rockier (13/12/17)
Bloomberg TV: G+’ Komileva Says BOE Is in 'Holding Period' on Rates (13/12/17)
Financial Times: High-stakes game of financial risk for policymakers - Cracks appearing as fears grow central bank tightening could provoke market instability (28/11/17)
Milano Finanza: May in limbo, pound under pressure (14/11/2017)
Dow Jones Newswires: BoE Risks Weak Growth, High Inflation, After Rate Rise: G+ Economics (14/11/17)
Dow Jones Newswires: Sterling Price Doesn't Reflect "Extreme" Scenarios - Market Talk (13/11/17)
5 Mega-Trends that will Define the Future of #Finance - outlined by @komileva
— CFA Institute® (@CFAinstitute) November 16, 2017
1. Macro-Market Liquidity and Cost of Risk
2. Demographics, Productivity and Economic Imbalances
3. Debt
4. Geopolitics of De-globalisation
5. Regulation and Systemic Risk #EICBerlin @FutureFinance pic.twitter.com/dqJYrdRWfU
Finance as a dynamic system: how are we going to get ready for a world of constant change? asks Lena @komileva at the European Investment Conference #EICBerlin pic.twitter.com/CMFrwjrOia
— CFA Institute® (@CFAinstitute) November 16, 2017
MarketWatch: Here’s why investors look too complacent about the Powell Fed (14/11/17)
Barron’s: How the Powell Fed Will Be Tested (11/11/17)
FT: “Continuity candidate” Powell still leaves questions for investors (03/11/17)
DowJones Newswires: ECB Must Strike Right Balance in Scaling Back Bond Purchases (24/10/17)
FT: The ECB and the Fed find themselves at the opposite ends of an exchange rate move that neither of them wants (08/09/17)
Bloomberg: Draghi's Soft Euro Talk Suggests He's Holding Back the Magic (07/09/17)
WSJ: ECB Weighs Ending Stimulus as Fed Calibrates Its Easy Money Stance (07/09/17)
Dow Jones Newswires: Mario Draghi Says ECB Held Talks on Future of Stimulus (07/09/17)
WSJ: ECB Weighs Ending Stimulus as Fed Calibrates Its Easy Money Stance (07/09/17)
FT: Euro rally pushes chances of ECB rate hike to lowest on record (04/09/17)
BBC Radio 4 Today: Eurozone looking healthy (01/09/17)
#r4today business: @kiergroup CEO on #brexit, careers & margins @komileva on #Eurozone @jamesbevan_ccla = markets https://t.co/Oogcji9sKG
— Lucy Burton (@lucyburton) September 1, 2017
Investing.com: Are central banks blowing a bond bubble? (21/08/17)
Financial Times Auther's Note: Better left unsaid (26/08/17)
DJ News: Janet Yellen and Mario Draghi Warn Against Regulatory Cuts, Trade Moves (26/08/17)
Dow Jones: Draghi Holds Off on Monetary Policy Clues, Criticizes Deregulation Push (25/08/17)
FT: Euro above $1.19 after Draghi’s Jackson Hole speech (25/08/17)
Bloomberg TV: G Plus' Komileva - Markets Unprepared for Normalization (10/08/17)
CNBC: Markets ‘married to 1987’ economic models, should stop looking back 20 years, respond to new economy: Pro (04/08/17)
FT Insight: You are too complacent (31/07/17)
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