Covid’s been nothing but a mega global structural shock. It’s so overwhelmingly different from the textbook economic cycle. As Lena Komileva explains in this column, in a rollercoaster cycle of expected vs realised economic risk, it’ll be wrong to think of macro volatility of 2020-2021 as the new normal.
Markets focus will soon pivot from the speed to sustainability of recovery. The 'new post-Covid normal', after a historic symbiosis b/n fiscal & monetary policy, will challenge policymakers, Financial Times, 25/03/2021
For markets, it is not debt levels, but fear of uncontrolled debt growth, where crises are born. 15/03/2021
The coronavirus pandemic is not a "black swan" so much as "a series of extraordinary events that have opened up several lines of global systemic fragility," according to Lena Komileva, chief economist at G Plus Economics. She speaks to Anna Edwards on "Bloomberg Markets: European Open." 25/03/2020
Central bank is caught between strong economic fundamentals and market fragility. By Lena Komileva, www.ft.com 07/01/2019
The “goldilocks” trade of the past year — the bet that a period of unnatural calm in financial conditions would last indefinitely — has broken down. By Lena Komileva www.ft.com
Although the economy is not about to fall into recession, it is close to the peak for the current growth cycle. By Lena Komileva
www.bloomberg.com
Lena Komileva, managing director at G+ Economics, discusses the ECB's bond-purchase plan with Bloomberg's Anna Edwards and Mark Barton on "Countdown" (Source: Bloomberg)
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Lena Komileva discusses the need for a focus on financial stability as a third mandate for central banks. She speaks with Tom Keene and Francine Lacqua on "Bloomberg Surveillance"
Ex-Goldman's Cohn, now President Trump's economic adviser says it would be wrong to think markets are ready for higher Fed rates. G Plus Economics Chief Economist and Managing Director Lena Komileva agrees. She speaks to Bloomberg's Anna Edwards on "Countdown." Source: Bloomberg
G Plus Economics Chief Economist and Managing Director Lena Komileva discusses the Greek debt crisis with Bloomberg's Anna Edward on "Countdown". (Source: Bloomberg)
Lena Komileva, managing director and chief economist at G+ Economics, talks with Guy Johnson about the U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls report and examines the overall strength of the U.S. economy. She speaks on “The Pulse”. (Source: Bloomberg)
Tom Keene and Jonathan Ferro on "Bloomberg Surveillance": Lena Komileva, managing director at G+ Economics, discusses global worries about financial instability and how markets are driving central bank moves. (Source: Bloomberg)
Bloomberg Opinion: Markets Are Ignoring the Main Driver of Today’s Inflation - In a rollercoaster economic cycle, inflation is the temporary cost of Covid uncertainty, Bloomberg, 9 June 2021
Financial Times Opinion: Markets will soon pivot to focus on sustainability of recovery - The 'new post-Covid normal', after a historic symbiosis b/n fiscal & monetary policy, will challenge policymakers, Financial Times, 25 March 2021
Bloomberg Opinion: Public Debt Isn't the Problem, Soaring Deficits Are, Bloomberg, 15 March 2021
Bloomberg Opinion | Economics: The Case for Keeping Europe’s Negative Rates Where They Are - As the gap between the haves and have-nots has grown, the European Central Bank’s policy has been a great equalizer, Bloomberg, 14 December 2020
Also watch: Global Economy Set for Battering Not Seen in Decades - Coronavirus has revealed multiple systemic risks, Komileva says, Bloomberg TV, 25 March 2020
Financial Times Market Insight: Market challenge for the Fed is just beginning, Financial Times, 7 January 2019
Bloomberg Prophets: The Rules of the Game Are Changing for Investors, Bloomberg, 16 February 2018
Financial Times Insight: Why volatility is here to stay, Financial Times, 12 February 2018
Bloomberg Opinion | Prophets: The Fed Is Losing Control of the Financial Markets, Bloomberg, 16 January 2018
Bloomberg Opinion | Prophets: Stocks and Bonds Are Sending the Correct Signals, Bloomberg, 15 December 2017
Financial Times Insight: High-stakes game of financial risk for policymakers - Cracks appearing as fears grow central bank tightening could provoke market instability, Financial Times, 28 November 2017 (Sintra ECB Forum on Central Banking)
FT Opinion: You are too complacent, central banks warn markets,
Financial Times, 31 July, 2017 (Sintra ECB Forum on Central Banking)
Currency fireworks, global economic imbalances and the G20, Bloomberg View, 18 February, 2013
On the need for Davos attendees to avoid a false sense of security, Bloomberg View, 23 January, 2013
How long can equities defy economic malaise? Financial Times, September, 2012
How Low Will Bond Yields Go? Financial Times, June 2012
FT Video: "Credit and solvency are the problem, not liquidity, so bail-outs should be replaced with a focus on strengthening institutions and improving growth prospects", FT Interview, 2011
Libor volatility is price of disrupted credit, Financial Times, 23 August, 2010
Not a liquidity crisis, but a solvency one, Financial Times, 3 June, 2010
How to fix the liquidity leak, Financial Times, 2 February 2009
Can the capital markets rally reinvigorate the real economy? Financial Times, September 2009
How G20 can unfreeze credit and cut bailout costs, The Great Debate, Thomson Reuters, April 2009
Crash and carry, Lena Komileva predicts a sharp reversal of the global carry trade, FX Week, 17 March 2008
Whatever the macro-risk financial climate, evolving international economic trends and financial interconnections can create actionable opportunities and real risk management demands. The art of successful investing is predicting the direction of macro risk travel >>>
Bloomberg Opinion: Markets Are Ignoring the Main Driver of Today’s Inflation (10/06/21)
FT Opinion: Markets will soon pivot to focus on sustainability of recovery (25/03/2021)
Bloomberg Opinion | Economics: Public Debt Isn't the Problem, Soaring Deficits Are (15/03/2021)
FT: ECB pledges to step up pace of stimulus to counter market sell-off (11/03/2021)
Bloomberg TV: 2021 Will be the `Bounce Back' Year for Inflation - January is shaping up to be a pivotal month in determining whether the nascent U.S. reflation trade can really gather steam in 2021. "Every single bit of the market is telling us that there is an excess of financial overhang of inflation that's just waiting to ripen as we move out of the pandemic," G+ Economics Managing Partner & Chief Economist Lena Komileva said on "Bloomberg Markets: European Open." (04/01/2021)
Bloomberg TV: G+ Economics Chief Economist Lena Komileva on Brexit Deal - G+ Economics Managing Partner & Chief Economist Lena Komileva speaks to Bloomberg about the historic post-Brexit deal and what it means for both the EU and the U.K. (24/12/2021)
Bloomberg Opinion | Economics: The Case for Keeping Europe’s Negative Rates Where They Are, Komileva writes for Bloomberg Opinion (14/12/2020)
Börsen-Zeitung: Top Eurozone economists interviewed for President Lagarde's 1 Year anniversary (27/10/2020)
FT: Fraying ECB consensus poses diplomatic challenge for Lagarde (05/10/2021)
FT: ECB chief economist warns against complacency over recovery (11/09/2020)
Bloomberg TV: Lena Komileva gives her reaction to ECB President Lagarde’s policy press conference and the latest standoff in UK-EU Brexit negotiations. She speaks to Vonnie Quinn on Bloomberg TV (10/09/2020)
FT: ECB to monitor rise of euro after keeping rates on hold (10/09/2020)
FT: ECB to buy up ‘fallen angel’ bonds to cushion euro zone economy - Economists warn over plan to expand €750bn programme to include riskier debts (26/04/2020)
FT Long View: Mind the gap between the markets and the real economy (18/04/2020)
Market Talk Roundup: Coronavirus Removes Safety Net for Investors, G+ Economics Says (09/04/2020)
FT Market Forces: A chasm between Wall Street and economic winter (09/04/2020)
WSJ/Dow Jones: Coronavirus Removes Security of Central Bank Aid, G+ Economics Says -- Market Talk
Investors Must Learn to Reprice Assets After Pandemic -- Market Talk
Sustained Recovery Seen a Long Way Off -- Market Talk
Coronavirus Hit an Already Fragile Economy, G+ Economics Says -- Market Talk
Pandemic Amplifies Cracks in Financial System -- Market Talk
Scope for 'New Level of Entrepreneurship' After Crisis -- Market Talk (09/04/2020)
International Financing Review: Fed launches repo program for foreign central banks (31/03/2020)
Bloomberg TV: Global Economy Set for Battering Not Seen in Decades - The coronavirus pandemic is not a "black swan" so much as "a series of extraordinary events that have opened up several lines of global systemic fragility," according to Lena Komileva, chief economist at G Plus Economics. She speaks to Anna Edwards on "Bloomberg Markets: European Open." (25/03/2020)
FT Market Forces: Softening the blow is not a cure (18/03/2020)
FT Market Forces: A fiscal and monetary prescription (11/03/2020)
FT: Lagarde to confront coronavirus crisis at ECB policy meeting (09/03/2020)
FT: Fed decision to go it alone bucks history of collaboration (05/03/2020)
FT Market Forces: Failing to calm the churning waters (03/03/2020)
FT: Investors seek clues on new thinking as Lagarde launches ECB review (23/01/2020)
FT: ECB’s new faces give investors pause for thought over policy shifts (13/01/2020)
FT: Eurozone economy set to slow further in 2020 — FT poll (26/12/2019)
FT poll: Christine Lagarde expected to change ECB inflation target (22/12/2019)
Bloomberg Surveillance: Stocks, bonds, currencies and commodities. Lena Komileva joins Francine Lacqua in London and Tom Keene in New York. (12/12/2019)
FT Market Forces: Jamming the pause button for an extended period (11/12/2019)
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