The coronavirus pandemic is not a "black swan" so much as "a series of extraordinary events that have opened up several lines of global systemic fragility," according to Lena Komileva, chief economist at G Plus Economics. She speaks to Anna Edwards on "Bloomberg Markets: European Open." (Source: Bloomberg)
Central bank is caught between strong economic fundamentals and market fragility. By Lena Komileva, www.ft.com 07/01/2019
The “goldilocks” trade of the past year — the bet that a period of unnatural calm in financial conditions would last indefinitely — has broken down. By Lena Komileva www.ft.com
Although the economy is not about to fall into recession, it is close to the peak for the current growth cycle. By Lena Komileva
www.bloomberg.com
Lena Komileva, managing director at G+ Economics, discusses the ECB's bond-purchase plan with Bloomberg's Anna Edwards and Mark Barton on "Countdown" (Source: Bloomberg)
(Please note link opens a new window)
Lena Komileva discusses the need for a focus on financial stability as a third mandate for central banks. She speaks with Tom Keene and Francine Lacqua on "Bloomberg Surveillance"
Ex-Goldman's Cohn, now President Trump's economic adviser says it would be wrong to think markets are ready for higher Fed rates. G Plus Economics Chief Economist and Managing Director Lena Komileva agrees. She speaks to Bloomberg's Anna Edwards on "Countdown." Source: Bloomberg
G Plus Economics Chief Economist and Managing Director Lena Komileva discusses the Greek debt crisis with Bloomberg's Anna Edward on "Countdown". (Source: Bloomberg)
Lena Komileva, managing director and chief economist at G+ Economics, talks with Guy Johnson about the U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls report and examines the overall strength of the U.S. economy. She speaks on “The Pulse”. (Source: Bloomberg)
Tom Keene and Jonathan Ferro on "Bloomberg Surveillance": Lena Komileva, managing director at G+ Economics, discusses global worries about financial instability and how markets are driving central bank moves. (Source: Bloomberg)
Financial Times Market Insight: Market challenge for the Fed is just beginning, Financial Times, 7 January, 2019
Bloomberg Prophets: The Rules of the Game Are Changing for Investors, Bloomberg, 16 February, 2018
Financial Times Insight: Why volatility is here to stay, Financial Times, 12 February, 2018
Bloomberg Opinion | Prophets: The Fed Is Losing Control of the Financial Markets, Bloomberg, 16 January, 2018
Bloomberg Opinion | Prophets: Stocks and Bonds Are Sending the Correct Signals, Bloomberg, 15 December, 2017
Financial Times Insight: High-stakes game of financial risk for policymakers - Cracks appearing as fears grow central bank tightening could provoke market instability, Financial Times, 28 November, 2017 (- Sintra follow up)
FT Opinion: You are too complacent, central banks warn markets,
Financial Times, 31 July, 2017 (Sintra)
Currency fireworks, global economic imbalances and the G20, Bloomberg View, 18 February, 2013
On the need for Davos attendees to avoid a false sense of security, Bloomberg View, 23 January, 2013
How long can equities defy economic malaise? Financial Times, September, 2012
How Low Will Bond Yields Go? Financial Times, June 2012
FT Video: "Credit and solvency are the problem, not liquidity, so bail-outs should be replaced with a focus on strengthening institutions and improving growth prospects", FT Interview, 2011
Libor volatility is price of disrupted credit, Financial Times, 23 August, 2010
Not a liquidity crisis, but a solvency one, Financial Times, 3 June, 2010
How to fix the liquidity leak, Financial Times, 2 February 2009
Can the capital markets rally reinvigorate the real economy? Financial Times, September 2009
How G20 can unfreeze credit and cut bailout costs, The Great Debate, Thomson Reuters, April 2009
Crash and carry, Lena Komileva predicts a sharp reversal of the global carry trade, FX Week, 17 March 2008
Whatever the macro-risk financial climate, evolving international economic trends and financial interconnections can create actionable opportunities and real risk management demands. The art of successful investing is predicting the direction of macro risk travel >>>
FT: ECB to buy up ‘fallen angel’ bonds to cushion euro zone economy - Economists warn over plan to expand €750bn programme to include riskier debts (26/04/2020)
FT Long View: Mind the gap between the markets and the real economy (18/04/2020)
Market Talk Roundup: Coronavirus Removes Safety Net for Investors, G+ Economics Says (09/04/2020)
FT Market Forces: A chasm between Wall Street and economic winter (09/04/2020)
Coronavirus Removes Security of Central Bank Aid, G+ Economics Says -- Market Talk
Investors Must Learn to Reprice Assets After Pandemic -- Market Talk
Sustained Recovery Seen a Long Way Off -- Market Talk
Coronavirus Hit an Already Fragile Economy, G+ Economics Says -- Market Talk
Pandemic Amplifies Cracks in Financial System -- Market Talk
Scope for 'New Level of Entrepreneurship' After Crisis -- Market Talk (09/04/2020)
International Financing Review: Fed launches repo program for foreign central banks (31/03/2020)
Bloomberg TV: Global Economy Set for Battering Not Seen in Decades - The coronavirus pandemic is not a "black swan" so much as "a series of extraordinary events that have opened up several lines of global systemic fragility," according to Lena Komileva, chief economist at G Plus Economics. She speaks to Anna Edwards on "Bloomberg Markets: European Open." (25/03/2020)
FT Market Forces: Softening the blow is not a cure (18/03/2020)
FT Market Forces: A fiscal and monetary prescription (11/03/2020)
FT: Lagarde to confront coronavirus crisis at ECB policy meeting (09/03/2020)
FT: Fed decision to go it alone bucks history of collaboration (05/03/2020)
FT Market Forces: Failing to calm the churning waters (03/03/2020)
FT: Investors seek clues on new thinking as Lagarde launches ECB review (23/01/2020)
FT: ECB’s new faces give investors pause for thought over policy shifts (13/01/2020)
FT: Eurozone economy set to slow further in 2020 — FT poll (26/12/2019)
FT poll: Christine Lagarde expected to change ECB inflation target (22/12/2019)
Bloomberg Surveillance: Stocks, bonds, currencies and commodities. Lena Komileva joins Francine Lacqua in London and Tom Keene in New York. (12/12/2019)
FT Market Forces: Jamming the pause button for an extended period (11/12/2019)
Khaleej Times (UAE): Europe needs a fresh shot of ideas to flourish (09/11/2019)
CNBC.com: Sterling falls after Bank of England split on interest rate cut (07/11/2019)
Politico.EU: Lagarde’s political bent leaves critics fearingfor ECB independence (04/11/2019)
FT: ECB vows to hold rates at historic low until inflation picks up (24/10/2019)
Investing.com: Oil Ends Near Flat; Trade War Trumps Kurdish Conflict (08/10/2019)
FTSE 100 finishes higher on Friday as US jobs report brightens the mood (04/10/2019)
Yahoo Finance: Gold Steadies as Powell’s Inflation Quest Offsets Encouraging Jobs Report (04/10/2019)
FT Market Forces: Awaiting a hawkish delivery (17/09/2019)
BBC Radio 4 Today programme: “ECB to do whatever it takes” - Lena Komileva, chief economist and managing director of G+ Economics, discusses what the ECB is likely to do, when interest rates are already negative. "There is a general agreement that the ECB has to follow up on reassuring words with action, a broad range of a blend of action, rates, asset purchases, guidance, a promise to do what ever it takes - again. It's clear that the ECB's toolkit is rather maxed out," she told BBC Radio 4's Today Programme.(12/09/2019)
Investing.com: Sterling Struggles to Hold Gains after U.K. Jobs Report (10/09/2019)
Germany’s Boersen Zeitung: “Rezessionsangste schuren Debatte uber Konjunkturstutze / Recession fears spur debate about economic stimulus” Lena Komileva speaks to Germany’s Boersen Zeitung chief economics correspondent Mark Schrörs together with Lucrezia Reichlin, Stefan Kooths, Stefan Schneider and Christoph Schmidt (23/08/2019)
Bloomberg Businessweek: What a Yield-Curve Inversion Really Says About the U.S. Economy. A reliable recession indicator has lost some of its power to predict. (22/08/2019)
FT: Germany confronts growing risk of economic slowdown (13/08/2019)
Bloomberg TV: Komileva Says Wall of Liquidity Is Hitting Capital Markets (17/07/2019)
Investing.com: Forex - Dollar Drops as Commodity Currencies Shine on Rate Outlook (12/07/2019)
WSJ Real-Time Economics Special Edition: U.S. Hiring Rebounds (05/07/2019)
In my closing address to the 2019 #FXBUYSIDE Europe Summit I argued that markets face a web of geo-economic risks:
— Lena Komileva (@komileva) June 17, 2019
- Politics of debt
- Politics of FX
- Politics of protectionism
The war b/n reflationary fiscal deficits & contractionary econ wars will determine the growth outlook pic.twitter.com/rgoN4C0Pff
WSJ Pro: Where Do Markets Go From Here? Rally or Collapse, Warns Economist, From uncertainty to unpredictability, says G+ Economics By Jessica Fleetham (28/06/2019)
Bloomberg TV: Best Place Is in Cash at the Moment, Says G Plus Economics’s Komileva (10/06/2019)
Marketwatch: Why the path for stocks and other markets now depend ‘critically on politics’ (10/06/2019)
Bloomberg News: Stocks Advance, Peso Surges on Mexico Trade Relief (09/06/2019)
CNBC.com: German auto sector could drop as much as 12% if Trump announces tariffs, analyst says (15/05/2019)
Bloomberg TV: We Are in Extremely Binary Markets at the Moment, Says G Plus Economics’s Komileva (25/04/2019)
MarketWatch: How far can stocks rally on dovish Fed? It depends on the data (31/01/2019)
FT Market Forces: A weaker dollar favours risk appetite (31/01/2019)
Bloomberg TV: Komileva, Todd on the Future of Brexit (16/01/2019)
FT Market Forces: Investors in thrall of the market tug of war (07/01/2019)
FT Market Insight: Market challenge for the Fed is just beginning (07/01/2019)
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