Lena Komileva

Lena Komileva is a City economist and a commentator on global economic themes with a long-established track record in financial services. Well followed for her core research, Lena works with public sector clients, policy officials, private wealth managers, hedge funds, market intermediaries, bank traders, risk officers, portfolio managers, public sector and corporate treasurers, inter-government institutions and media opinion-leaders. She is read by national and supra-national policy institutions, including the Federal Reserve, the People’s Bank of China and the IMF. 

 

Lena is the Chief Economist and Managing Director of G+ Economics, an international market research and economic intelligence consultancy based in London. Previously she was Senior Vice President and Global Head of G10 Strategy at Brown Brothers Harriman, a private US custodian bank, and Director and Global Head of G7 Market Economics at Tullett Prebon, No1 Broker for Currencies in the 2010-2011 Risk Magazines rankings and the biggest government bonds broker in Europe. 

 

From the position of a top-down macro-economist with nearly two decades of experience in the heart of global capital markets, Lena writes on a variety of economic themes related to US, Euro area and UK fundamentals, policy, financial markets, capital flows and systemic links in the global economy. She was among the very first to argue the global implications from the securitisation crisis in the summer of 2007, including the dislocation of money markets, next-to-zero G7 monetary policy rates, the Great Recession and the new role for public capital in the functioning of financial markets with the worrying side effects of long-term public debt sustainability and global financial inflation pressures. Her product expertise lies in foreign exchange, money markets and government debt, while monitoring and analysing relationships with other markets such as volatility, credit derivatives, equities, commodities and emerging markets. Lena is a frequent contributor to the quality financial media and is regularly invited to speak at international industry forums.

 

Industry awards and recognitions

  • Over 90%  forecasting accuracy for the US Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank and the Bank of England. 
  • Topped Bloomberg’s poll of economists as the best forecaster for the US CPI (96.2% accuracy), 2003
  • One of the top ten forecasters in the world of the US ISM Manufacturing index, a leading indicator for the US business cycle, Bloomberg Rankings 2003. 

Track Record

 

Lena was one of the very first economists to draw the link between a systemic regime change in global market dynamics, credit multipliers in real economies, recession risk and the central bank response in early 2007. After accurately calling the end of the Fed tightening cycle in response to subprime stresses in February 2007, months ahead of the consensus, she wrote about the “impending credit crunch” on 1 June 2007, as stress signals from US subprime securitisation sectors reached European bond market volatility gauges, accurately predicting the balance sheet risk transmission from debt to equity markets and the collapse of the FX carry trade over the weeks that followed.

 

By January 2008, her economic model showed 85% probability that the US was already in a recession – twelve months before the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) confirmed it. As “dislocated money markets” – a term that Lena coined in the summer of 2007 - defied central banks’ short term liquidity stabilisation measures – Lena’s article in FX Week in March 2008, arguing that the disconnect between elevated emerging market asset valuations and riskier developed market credit impulses was unsustainable, became a prophesy for the steady rise and dispersion of market volatility in the summer of 2008. This ultimately culminated with the collapse of Lehman and the nationalisation of US mortgage markets in 2008, and the start of a new era of central bank policy making that centred on balance sheet size, market liquidity risk premia and deflation tail risk probability management, over traditional rate and inflation targeting.

 

For the past decade, Lena’s early “lower for longer” calls on market rates, against repeated consensus calls for early tightening from the Fed, the ECB and the BoE in the years between 2009 and 2014, preceded the steady flattening of the US and European core government bond yield curves.

 

In recent years, Lena has repeatedly warned that the decoupling between the US business and financial cycle is harbouring distortions in US and global risk asset pricing, with significant consequences for the economic risk cycle. Her early calls on market policy mispricing and peak cycle dynamics over the course of 2017, and in particular her call that US 10yr yields are unjustifiably low in August 2017, have resonated strongly with the shift in the global policy tide over the past year and the return of market volatility in 2018.  

 

Today Lena advises top tier investors, CEOs and Exec Boards on financial, macro-economic and policy developments across core G+ markets, as managing partner and chief economist at G+ Economics, an international market research and economic intelligence consultancy based in London. With over two decades advising CEOs in banking, custodial, wealth management and legal and regulatory consulting services as head of market economics for the largest European government bonds broker in the world, Lena a regular voice at policy and industry forums, and an economic adviser, working with such institutions as the CFA Institute, the World Gold Council, McKinsey & Co., and the UK Parliament among others. Lena is a regular contributor for Bloomberg, the Financial Times, the Wall Street Journal, Reuters, and the BBC, and a leading independent voice in the international policy debate on global growth themes focusing on market efficiency, international capital flows and monetary analysis.

Product and Market Expertise

 

With a wealth of experience advising top-tier institutional and policy clients, Lena has written extensively on US, UK and Euro area fundamentals combining financial, monetary and macro-economic analysis.

 

Her focus is on analysing the flow of funds between the financial industry - including the banking sector and wholesale asset markets - and the real economy, and its impact on economic and financial stability and policy. Lena was among the very first to argue the global implications from the securitisation crisis in the summer of 2007, including the dislocation of money markets, next-to-zero G7 monetary policy rates, the Great Recession, the Eurozone crisis and the new role for public capital in the functioning of financial markets with the worrying side effects of long-term public debt sustainability and global financial inflation pressures. 

 

In addition to thematic strategy and economic analysis and forecasting, her product research focuses on foreign exchange, money markets and government debt, and the relationships with other asset classes such as volatility, credit, credit derivatives, equities, emerging markets and commodities.

 

Lena is a frequent contributor to Bloomberg, Reuters, Financial Times, the BBC, the WSJ among others. She is regularly invited to present at market industry forums and has contributed articles to Bloomberg Brief, the Financial Times, Reuters, FX Week and others. Her research has been extensively quoted in the international press and she gives regular TV and radio interviews.

 

MEDIA

Industry engagements

 

Gallery: Keynote economic address: Milan Pension Funds Forum, 2016

Newsroom

Bloomberg TV: Komileva on the Greek Crisis, EU, IMF, ECB Risks

Lena Komileva, chief economist at G+ Economics, talks about the Greek debt crisis and the country's future in the euro zone. She speaks with Maryam Nemazee on Bloomberg Television's "The Pulse". (Source: Bloomberg)

 

Note links open a new window

FT Video: Is the world really ready for higher rates? 

Is it time to ease the world economy off zero rates? Lena Komileva, chief economist at G+ Economics, argues to FT editor John Authers that productivity, employment and inflation remain low, while leverage has rebounded, so central bankers should be very careful. (Source: www.ft.com)

Bloomberg TV: Greece Is More Out Than In the Euro Zone - Komileva 

G+ Economics Managing Director and Chief Economist Lena Komileva discusses the Greek debt deal, the Greek banking system and the future of the indebted nation. She speaks to Bloomberg’s Guy Johnson and Anna Edwards on “Countdown” (Source: Bloomberg)

BBC Radio 4 Today programme: Could Greece still leave the eurozone?

Five years on from the eurozone crisis which could have seen Greece and others crash out of the eurozone, a game of brinksmanship is going on. The German government expects Greece to uphold the terms of its international bailout agreement but the anti-austerity party Syriza opposes. Lena Komileva discusses with the BBC's Simon Jack, on the BBC Radio 4 Today programme. 

Centre for the Study of Financial Innovation: Lena Komileva discusses European currency markets

CNBC: Markets ‘married to 1987’ economic models, Fed policy more forward-thinking

Markets are "married to 1987 models" of economic theory. Federal Reserve policy by contrast is "very much a function of 2007," and the direction after 2017 will be very different. Developments such as the "gig economy" and fintech have radically shaped the landscape of the economy. Lena Komileva talks to CNBC.

Read Lena Komileva's interview with Portugal’s Jornal de Negócios

Portugal’s Jornal de Negócios: Komileva: ECB "will extend stimulus" beyond 2016 (10/06/15)
Interview with Portugal’s Jornal de Negócios: Lena Komileva recognizes that the ECB's measures are already having an impact, but doubts that inflation is headed to 2% with full employment in the Eurozone.
Portugal CFA article.pdf
Adobe Acrobat document [841.9 KB]

Demand better!

Whatever the macro-risk financial climate, evolving international economic trends and financial interconnections can create actionable opportunities and real risks. The art of successful investing is predicting the direction of macro risk travel >>>

g+economics in the news

Barron’s “Up and Down Wall Street”: Does the Flattening Yield Curve Signal a Recession? (21/04/18) 

 

FT: Fed’s rate signals belie benign financial conditions (22/03/18) 

 

FT: US stocks gain traction on signs of North Korea progress (06/03/18) 

 

Bloomberg Prophets: The Rules of the Game Are Changing for Investors (16/02/18) 

 

Financial Times Insight: Why volatility is here to stay (12/02/18) 

Asset TV: Masterclass Global Outlook

FT: Wall Street struggles to extend new year rally (08/01/18)

 

Bloomberg TV: What are the biggest risks facing markets in 2018? (01/01/18) 

 

Bloomberg Best - Radio: The outlook for 2018 (28/12/17) 

 

Bloomberg TV: Komileva Says Markets in State of “Rational Exuberance” (28/12/17)  

 

Bloomberg Opinion | Prophets: Stocks and Bonds Are Sending the Correct Signals (15/12/17

 

WSJ: As Fed Tightens, Europe Hangs Loose (14/12/17) 

 

FT: Yellen kept markets calm but 2018 may be rockier (13/12/17)

 

Bloomberg TV: G+’ Komileva Says BOE Is in 'Holding Period' on Rates (13/12/17) 

 

Financial Times: High-stakes game of financial risk for policymakers - Cracks appearing as fears grow central bank tightening could provoke market instability (28/11/17)  

 

Milano Finanza: May in limbo, pound under pressure (14/11/2017) 

 

Dow Jones Newswires: BoE Risks Weak Growth, High Inflation, After Rate Rise: G+ Economics (14/11/17)

 

Dow Jones Newswires: Sterling Price Doesn't Reflect "Extreme" Scenarios - Market Talk (13/11/17) 

 

FT Insight: You are too complacent (31/07/17) 

 

Grow!

The art of successful investing is predicting the direction of macro risk travel. Find the signal from the noise and rediscover your focus >>>